Gold Battle Royale Among Multiple Players

Gold opened lower today and is now striving to climb, with a current increase of +0.34%, and an increase of 2.10 yuan per gram of gold. The bulls are working hard to defend 2730 and are focusing on attacking 2735, with an intense battle for gold supremacy unfolding.

So, in the battle for gold dominance, what are the bullish factors and what are the bearish factors? Let's take a look at the situation together.

1. Market Performance

On October 28th, gold opened lower with a drop of 0.32%, and then rose again in the latter half of the night due to safe-haven buying.

Domestic plate price is 623.1 yuan, and the international plate price is 2737.7 US dollars.

2. Influencing Factors

2.1 Technical Analysis

2.1.1 Weekly Chart

The rise at the end of Friday's trading session resulted in a three-week winning streak on the weekly chart, with the实体企稳 above the 5-week moving average, dense support from the cycle moving averages, and upward movement in cycle indicators. However, this week's positive candlestick has both upper and lower shadows, indicating a need for a pullback adjustment. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of non-farm data on the weekly trend.

Advertisement

2.1.2 Daily ChartThe structure continues to close higher, with the real body breaking through the resistance of the short-term moving averages and closing above, the cycle indicators form a golden cross and rise, and the bulls are in control.

2.1.3 4 Hours

Technical indicators are on the rise, with an upward slope, the RSI indicator is in the overbought area but has been repaired somewhat by the decline in the latter half of the week, the SAR parabolic indicator change appears at a high level, and the MACD red volume column is shrinking. There is optimism for breaking new highs, with a focus on buying on dips.

III. Fundamental Analysis

3.1 International Situation

On Saturday, Israel's attack on Iran did not have a substantial impact, raising hopes for a de-escalation of the situation, suppressing the safe-haven demand for gold, and causing gold to open slightly lower in the morning. This week, attention should be paid to key economic data such as the U.S. third-quarter GDP, October PCE data, and the October non-farm employment report. These data will have an impact on the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the trend of gold.

3.2 Market Sentiment

U.S. economic data continues to be strong, and even though oil prices have fallen significantly, the inflation expectations priced in by long-term bonds have not broken the upward trend, and the risk of global economic stagflation still exists. Over the past month, there has been a divergence in the correlation between gold and U.S. Treasuries, with gold prices highlighting strength against the backdrop of weakening U.S. Treasuries.

3.3 Capital FlowsIn the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the expectation of rising gold prices, the domestic gold ETF holdings significantly increased to 91.39 tons, growing by 29.93 tons compared to the end of 2023, with an increase of 48.69%.

IV. Analysis of the Outlook for Gold

4.1 Bullish View

The gold weekly chart shows a steady upward trend, indicating there is still room for price increases. The daily chart shows a recovery from a low point, closing with a long lower shadow and a bare-headed bullish candlestick, which is a bullish signal. Overall, the strategy should focus on buying on dips, with attention to resistance levels at 2758-2770 and support levels at 2730-2735.

4.2 Bearish View

This week, the gold price closed with a bullish candlestick that has both upper and lower shadows, suggesting a need for a pullback and adjustment on the weekly chart, which could lead to a high and then a retreat. If U.S. economic data indicates strong growth and inflation is sticky, it could undermine bets on interest rate cuts, which would be unfavorable for gold.