Spot gold opened with a gap lower, then fluctuated around the $2740 mark multiple times, and finally closed higher at $2742.27 per ounce. Spot silver closed flat at $33.66 per ounce.
Yesterday's gap opening did not affect the overall upward trend. During the day, gold withstood the downward pressure and steadily rose to above the 40 level. After today's opening, the market smoothly transitioned overnight, and began to rise at 7 a.m., reaching a high of 2755 at present. It is expected that there is a good chance to break new highs during the day, but be wary of the pullback adjustment after the new high.
The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.72 tons compared to the previous day, with the current holding amount at 891.5 tons.
On Thursday and Friday, the US September PCE price index and the October non-farm report are about to be released, and the Federal Reserve will make an interest rate decision. Regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut, the market currently expects it to cut rates by 25 basis points on November 7th. However, media analysis points out that if the employment report is so weak that it cannot be explained solely by the hurricane effect, it may raise the expectation of a rate cut.
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All the above news points to the rise in the gold market. Next, gold is likely to break new highs. As for the bears, I think that given the current situation, it's time to run. If you went short near 40, you can wait for the pullback adjustment after breaking new highs. If you went short before 35, it's time to run now and look for an opportunity to switch to short to make up for some losses.
From the hourly K-line perspective, both the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands are in an upward trend, showing an overall diverging trend. The MACD fast and slow lines are also looking up and heading higher. The next market is likely to continue to rise, but the RSI shows an overbought condition, so be alert to the market's pullback adjustment. If you are caught in a short position, you can take the opportunity to cut your losses, but don't be greedy. The range is 5-15, and the specific decision should be based on the market trend.
Combining the above analysis, the impact of the news from Israel and Iran over the weekend has passed. Currently, all other news points to the rise in gold. Therefore, the overall upward trend of gold has not changed. Long-term, you can continue to go long. Short-term, be alert to pullback adjustments. Next month, the US is likely to cut rates by 25-50 basis points. Long-term, you can expect $2800, and short-term, if it stands firm at 2758, you can go long to 2770 with a stop loss at 2750. If it does not stand firm at 2758, you can go short by $10 to 2748 with a stop loss at 2764.
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